Possible weakening of the ruble to 65 rubles / $ 1 on the horizon of the third quarter – Rosbank

Dollar / ruble exchange    rate on the Moscow Exchange at intervals of 1 minute

Dollar / ruble exchange    rate  on Forex at intervals of 4 hours

„Pairs dollar / ruble (USD / RUB) and euro / ruble (EUR / RUB) in early July hastily returned to the ranges of 62.5-65 rubles / $1, 63-66.5 rubles / EUR1, respectively. Reasons for correction were verbal signals from the Ministry of Finance about the intention to replenish reserves in the currencies of „friendly” countries, the easing of foreign exchange controls on exporters (the share of revenue required for repatriation and sale was reduced to 0%), the approval of Eurobond issuers to redeem obligations in rubles.

On the horizon of the third quarter of 2022, we expect the dollar / ruble pair to reach the level of 65 rubles / $ 1, which will be facilitated by the restructuring of supply chains (especially import flows to Russia) and targeted foreign exchange interventions from the Ministry of Finance.